Within the first 6 months of 2023, the Worth & Alternative portfolio gained +5,0% (together with dividends, no taxes) towards a achieve of +12,8% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).
Hyperlinks to earlier Efficiency opinions may be discovered on the Efficiency Web page of the weblog. Another funds that I observe have carried out as follows within the first 6M 2023:
Companions Fund TGV: 3,6%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: 16,6%
Squad European Convictions +7,6%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen 6,9%
Squad Aguja Particular Scenario +5,3%
Paladin One -0,8%
Alphastars Europe + 11,4%
Efficiency evaluation:
General, the portfolio efficiency was within the decrease third of my peer group. Because the peer group is usually Small cap targeted, the general relative low returns correspond with the returns of European small cap indices and are mosly effectively beneath Massive cap indices. Wanting on the month-to-month returns, it isn’t troublesome to see that particularly January and June have been in relative phrases very disappointing.
Particularly within the final 2 weeks or so, some positions have been topic to very “indiviual” impacts, comparable to ABO Wind and their concept to rework themselves right into a authorized construction (“KGaA”) that may curtail shareholder rights, or Sto that was impacted negatively by a really weak outlook from competitor Steico. Or Thermador, which suffered for no apparent purpose.
That this 12 months could be a troublesome one in relative phrases was already clear from January. I nonetheless assume that the portfolio provides nice potential, however quick time period share worth momentum is clearly not excellent for a lot of of my positions. Fortunately, I don’t have to care in any respect about quick time period developments, I’ll proceed to deal with the mid- to long run which, I hope, will carry good outcomes.
2023 is a type of years the place I’m very completely satisfied that I don’t handle third occasion cash. I can solely think about what sort of discussions I would want to have with purchasers who wouldn’t perceive why the efficiency is thus far behind the benchmarks. Fortunate me !!!
Transactions Q2:
The present portfolio may be seen as at all times on the Portfolio web page.
In Q2, I offered Rockwool and Recticel after my deeper dive into insulation corporations. Rockwool at a achieve of ~28%, Recticel at a lack of -9%. The second half of the 12 months will likely be robust for European constructing corporations, so possibly there’s a probability to extend the publicity to chose gamers.
I additionally exited VEF because it develop into someway to small to hassle at a lack of ~-10%. This had been a pleasant winner in between however nowadays, Fintech seems to be like a lifeless duck. Nonetheless I’ll hold monitoring them. I additionally offered extra Meier & Tobler because the share worth is above my mid time period goal.
There have been no new positions, solely place will increase in Schaffner and Sto.
Remark: “AI has saved the day”
What a distinction 9 months make. In Q3 2022, issues regarded very dangerous for something associated to expertise. The Covid increase was over, Tech corporations have been lowering their forecasts and slicing jobs and Nasdaq share costs have been roughly in free fall. In retroperspective, all of this most definitely modified with the November thirtieth launch of ChatGPT.
ChatGPT not solely grew to become the quickest rising shopper app with extra then 100 mn signal ups after 2 months, it additionally injected new life into the tech sector. “Generative AI” as it’s now identified is meant to be the “massive subsequent factor” that may make everybody’s life significantly better and convey big quantities of cash to Tech corporations.
As at all times, the large Tech corporations gained most, as buyers think about their moats so sturdy that they may win even when they don’t have a devoted product like Apple. Within the wake of the Huge Tech corporations, additionally loads of the “fallen ShitCo Angels” have made some spectacular positive aspects and the same old “ShitCo Tech Bros” have a good time themselves for 2023 positive aspects on FinTwit.
“Generative AI” appears to have woke up investor’s animal spirits in report time and even in early stage VC, the cash begins flowing freely once more like this 105 mn Seed spherical for a 4 week outdated AI start-up from France.
To not be outdone, German buyers are already flocking again to newly listed Shitcos like ParTec which mixes (in fact) Quantum computing and AI.
Marc Andreesen from A16Z already annonced in early June that “AI will save the world”. For now, AI has clearly saved the world for Enterprise Capitalists and Tech Buyers. Lately I used to be pitched by a VC claiming that Generative AI and Blockchain are inseparable and subsequently Blockchain will come again with a vengance, too.
Personally, I’m not 100% certain if and the way justified the present AI hype is. This is primarily based on my remark of the primary AI Growth that occurred round 4-5 years within the VC world.
Even again then, each startup claimed to have superior AI capabilities. A few of these start-ups like Lemonade and Upstart made it to the inventory alternate. Now after a few years it has develop into fairly clear, that these AI capabilities have been nice on paper however sadly didn’t result in a superior final result in enterprise efficiency for no matter purpose. One other a lot hyped AI case, Self driving vehicles, additionally turned oput to be a lot more durable than initially thought and aside from some native successes, full self driving appears nonetheless a few years away.
One other remark is the next: Lots of the present AI supporters like A16Z, Sadya Nadella or others declare that AI will likely be this excellent “Copilot” for people, serving to us to enhance our skills and no hurt will likely be accomplished to anybody.
Nonetheless, once I was studying the accessible AI literature 5 years in the past, most authors agreed on one factor: AI will develop and iterate at a digital pace. So as soon as AI is sweet sufficient to actually assist us in many various conditions, it’s inevitable that AI will be capable to these things in a really quick time with out human assist as it should iterate extremely quick. My recommendation for younger folks could be: Don’t aspire to develop into a “Immediate Engineer”, that career received’t final that lengthy in any case.
So for the long run we can have most definitely two eventualities and I’m not certain which is extra doubtless:
- AI capaibilities, regardless of ChatGPT and Midjourney are nonetheless rudimentary and it’ll nonetheless take a very long time till they actually make a distinction OR
- AI capabilities are already far superior and in very quick time AI based mostly algorithms will create havoc in lots of areas of life
Possibly I’m too pesimistic right here, however I don’t see the mild, “save the world” properties of AI but. The one clear winners of the present hype are clearly VCs and the “tech ShitCo Bros” who’re capable of pump the following technology of ShitCos.
In the interim, I personally I really feel extra snug with “brick and mortar” enterprise fashions which might be arduous to interchange with AI than something that may very well be impacted severly comparable to Software program.