Thursday, May 23, 2024

BANC/PACW Fashion Merger with FirstSun, Low cost Proforma

This morning, FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) (~$850MM market cap) introduced they have been buying HomeStreet (HMST) (~$200MM market cap) in an all-stock transaction that features a PIPE funding, lead by Wellington (being achieved at $32.50 per FSUN, or $14.12 per HMST), that neutralizes the mark-to-market impression of HomeStreet’s steadiness sheet.  FirstSun is an insider managed (69% insider possession) C&I mortgage heavy financial institution that trades OTC with geographic focus in Kansas, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona.  FSUN would be the surviving entity, with FSUN administration in cost (HMST’s Mark Mason given a semi-ceremonial place as Vice Chair of the board) and be listed on the NASDAQ publish “mid-2024” shut, growing the liquidity of their shares.

The credit score high quality of HomeStreet’s belongings has by no means actually been in query, by re-marking them at present values, together with value synergies, FirstSun will be capable to take pleasure in outsized earnings within the early years of the deal.

HomeStreet shareholders can be receiving 0.4345 shares of FSUN for each share of HMST.  As I write this, there’s truly a unfavorable unfold, seemingly as a result of FSUN is OTC and illiquid, however the proforma entity is buying and selling at roughly 5.9x subsequent years estimated earnings, properly beneath peer banks.

At 8x, nonetheless beneath friends however accounting for a number of the overearning associated to the marks, HMST could be value $21/share.

I will cling onto my shares, stick this in the identical psychological bucket as Banc of California (BANC) the place a stronger financial institution takes over a weak one, extracts loads of synergies and as we get nearer to 2025, the market will begin to acknowledge the brand new earnings profile of the mixed financial institution.  I proceed to love regional banks in at the moment’s market, for a couple of causes:

  1. With brief phrases charges seemingly coming down in 2024, banks will try to shortly scale back their deposit prices (100% beta) to guard their NIMs;
  2. Industrial actual property publicity is usually overstated by the media/market, it would take a very long time to play out giving financial institution’s time to order and exercise loans;
  3. We’ll proceed to see loads of mergers, banks want extra diversified deposit platforms to increase deposit period.

Some other banks on the market ripe for the same transaction construction?

Disclosure: I personal shares of HMST

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