Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, chance of invasion not priced in – Deep Worth Investments Weblog


I’ve determined to promote up on most of my Russian / Ukranian shares.

HYDR, FXPO, SIBN, RSTI, GLTR.

I’m holding on to FEES (Russian Electrical energy grid Yield 8.5%+, P/E <4 and P/B<0.3 (I can take the ache on this), and GAZP as 50% dividend payout information introduced at present implies *probably* a really excessive yield.

I’m more and more involved there will probably be an invasion/incursion in Ukraine. This build-up appears lengthy/ sustained for a ‘coaching train’. In the event that they go house with out doing something Putin will look weak.

I additionally word final 12 months their western district held intensive coaching workout routines as nicely.

He will probably be particularly cautious of speak of Ukraine becoming a member of Nato, in Russian phrases that is equal to Canada becoming a member of the Warsaw pact – one thing that may’t be allowed to occur!

To me, navy motion will not be within the RUB/USD trade price and isn’t within the value of shares. So till the mists clear I’ll get out and await readability. There will not be more likely to be any main optimistic catalysts quickly, so at worst I miss a number of % of acquire over the subsequent month or two while managing my danger. I could even be capable to snatch a fast, small profit from this, although its actually being executed for danger minimisation.

Arduous to know the best way to name it – I initially considered this as western scaremongering. This occurs, we acquired many alarmist headlines when Russia began sending bombers in direction of UK airspace. What was by no means mentioned was that NATO by no means stopped testing Russia’s air response (however this will get no press).

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