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Monday, May 27, 2024

My 22 (+1) investments for 2024


Following an annual custom, by the top of the yr, I evaluate my portfolio by writing/updating very brief summaries for every particular person place.  16 of the 23 positions from final yr are nonetheless within the portfolio and I’ve added 7 new positions. That turnover has been partially pushed by exits/take-overs (Schaffner, Logistec) and by discovering new concepts. A extra complete Efficiency evaluate will comply with in early January 2024.

A brief person information:
My most well-liked model of investing is a backside up method, specializing in 20-30 small/midcap shares that for my part have an excellent return/threat profile over the subsequent 3-5 (or extra) years. Many of those shares will not be family names and are unlikely to make spectacular positive factors in any single yr. Lots of them look fascinating solely after the second or third look and are reasonably boring, which is precisely what I’m in search of. So if you’re in search of a “Scorching inventory for 2024”, this publish received’t assist you a lot.

And all the time keep in mind: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

As a particular service and to supply one thing “contemporary”, I’ve created a brand new portfolio overview chart primarily based on holding intervals which I proudly current right here:

The summaries of the earlier years will be discovered right here:

My 23 Investments for 2023
My 28 Investments for 2022
My 21 (+6) Investments for 2021
My 20 investments for 2020
My 22(+1) Investments for 2019
My 21 investments for 2018
My 27 investments for 2017
My 27 investments for 2016
My 28 investments for 2015
My 24 investments for 2014
My 22 investments for 2013

Let’s go:

1. TFF Group (Portfolio weight 7,4%, Holding interval 13,0 years)

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TFF is the “Final inventory standing” from the preliminary portfolio 13 years in the past. It’s the world main, household owned & run oak barrel producer. Their official motto is “Time is in your facet”. Has grown effectively over a few years as a consequence of Asian demand for aged French wines and opportunistic acquisitions. Whisky barrels have added to  development. After a few years of organically constructing US operations (Bourbon) from scratch, which required important capital outlay and no gross sales, gross sales have elevated considerably within the earlier enterprise yr and in addition Q1 2023/2024 appears promising. No cause to alter a lot aside from some rebalancing, “Long run Maintain”

2. G. Perrier (5,1%, 10,8 years)


French, household owned & run small cap, specialist for electrical installations with a powerful place in Nuclear upkeep. Good development regardless of financial headwinds. They added a brand new section in 2021 (aerospace and defence). Even in a troublesome 2023, they managed to develop revenues with the Defence section main. Again in 2013 I purchased it as an inexpensive inventory, it turned out to be a effectively run, decently rising firm that compounds effectively. “Long run Maintain”.

3. Thermador (4,6%, 10,5 years)
thermador_logo
Thermador is a French primarily based, specialist development provide distribution firm with a concentrate on pumps and something related with water circulation. Distinct “outsider model” company tradition with an emphasis on decentralized choice making and common M&A exercise. 2023 began effectively however the development slowed down fairly dramatically with the development sector. I added slightly to the place throughout the yr. “Long run maintain”.

4. Admiral (6,5%, 9,4 years)

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A direct retail insurance coverage firm. UK primarily based, value benefits, founders nonetheless personal share positions, nonetheless have now left the corporate for age causes. The EU subsidiaries are nonetheless making good progress with a protracted development runway in entrance of them. After a nasty 2022, the inventory has rebounded and it may very well be that 2023 was the underside of the occasion claims cycle. I’ve been “re-underwriting” Admiral a while in the past, however there are additionally some side that I like lower than previously, particularly the rising UK value ratios and lack of ability to resolve the US downside with the loss making subsidiary there.   “maintain, however watch”.

5. Bouvet (3,8%, 9,4 years)

IT consulting firm from Norway. After I purchased the inventory eight years in the past, the inventory worth beforehand had been hit laborious by the oil worth decline, Statoil was the most important consumer. The enterprise and the inventory confirmed a powerful restoration since 2016. I used to be uncertain in regards to the inventory in some years however the firm stored rising. In early 2020, I offered half of the place (a lot too early in fact). The corporate surprises me yearly, once more with double digit (organc) development in 2023. In comparison with the standard of the enterprise, the inventory shouldn’t be too costly. “Maintain”.

6. Companions Fund -MSA Capital (4,0%, 8,3 years)

An funding right into a fund run by an excellent good friend. Mathias is a “Munger model” investor with a concentrated portfolio of “moaty” firms, a lot of them from the US. I feel it’s a good complimentary publicity for my funding model and he has been ouperforming my portfolio by some proportion factors per yr till 2022. After a nasty 2022, the fund worth has recovered just lately. Apart from many “Cathy Woods model” development traders, I’m 100% certain that the Companions Fund will proceed to do effectively over the subsequent 10-20 Years “Long run maintain”.

7. Sixt AG Desire shares (4,1%, 3,9 years)

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Sixt is an organization I’ve been admiring for a very long time however by no means managed to “pull the set off” to purchase. Lastly, throughout the darkish days of Covid-19, I managed to construct up a place within the cheaper pref shares.

2023 noticed a rebound after a major loss in 2022. The present P/E of 8 doesn’t give any credit score to the standard of the corporate. What I’ll by no means perceive is the very fact, that the Pref shares commerce at such a reduction to the widespread shares. “Long run maintain, doubtlessly add”.

8. Chapters Group (1,0%, 3,8 years)

Chapters is the brand new identify of Mediqon and one of many  remainders of my “German Basket” try. The corporate tries to place itself as one thing like a “Mini Constellation” or “Mini Danaher” and has established a couple of platforms via which they purchase small enterprise. The corporate once more managed to promote shares to new traders at excessive share costs. Jan, the CEO did an excellent podcast this yr that introduced some publicity. With a market cap of 280 mn EUR, the corporate now additionally would possibly appeal to extra traders. “Long run maintain”.

9. AOC Fund (4,1%, 2,4 years)

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The second fund funding. This time into an “activist fund”, most well-known due to its profitable marketing campaign on Stada some years in the past. They take a reasonably concentrated long run method and actively work with/in firm boards. Moreover te actually nice ong time period efficiency, a objective can also be to comply with and making an attempt to be taught from them. After a really sturdy 2022, 2023 to this point appears like a weak yr yr in absolute and relative phrases as a few the psotions (AGFA, PNE Wind) have been struggling. The long run observe file remains to be excellent. “Long run Maintain”.

10. Alimentation Couche-Tard (4,9%, 2,9 years)

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ACT entered the portfolio in 2021 as considered one of my only a few massive cap investments. It was the uncommon likelihood to get into a top quality compounder at an inexpensive valuation (13-14x trailing PE) virtually 3 years in the past. The corporate is known for its decentralized, entrepreneurial tradition and wonderful capital allocation. After a failed bid for Carrefour, ACT had fallen out of favor with some traders which opened this chance. In fact there are some points similar to the difficulty how EV charging will develop and sure ESG subjects (Tobacco gross sales), however general that is one for the long term though it wants cautious watching (EV charging). “Long run maintain”.

11. BioNTech AG (1,1%, 2,8 years)

BioNTech_Logo

BioNTech was an “inspiration” from the start of 2021. It was meant to be a “guess” each on the founders and the know-how in addition to a hedge in opposition to a chronic Covid-19 pandemic. 2023 was very unhealthy, with the inventory down -40%, however fortunately I offered round 1/3 of the place near peak costs. I nonetheless suppose that there’s a first rate likelihood that BioNTech can develop the mRNA platform additionally right into a pipeline in opposition to different ailments, particularly most cancers which was the unique goal of the corporate. The billions in money they made on the Covid vaccine may velocity up the method. To be sincere, it’s extra a “Collector’s nook inventory” than a core place. “Maintain”.

12. Photo voltaic Group A/S (3,3%, 1,6 years)

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Photo voltaic Goup was the primary results of my “all Danish Shares” collection. It’s a small Danish wholesale firm that gives provides for heating, cooling and different electrical centered elements to craftsmen in Scandinavia and the Netherlands. After “hibernating” for a few years, the corporate has began rising in 2021 and has continued to take action in 2022. In 2023, the corporate skilled a decelerate with the remainder of the development business, however for my part managed fairly effectively. The inventory worth nonetheless is down -22%, valuing within the firm at 5x 2023 earnings. A few friends have already recovered previously few weeks, so perhaps 2024 will likely be a greater yr.  “Maintain”.

13. DCC Plc (5,9%, 1,1 years)

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At its core, DCC is a really unglamorous, mid-cap distribution firm headquartered in Eire and working by way of 3 completely different platforms (Power, “Know-how” and healthcare) across the globe and may very well be characterised as “serial acquirer”. Regardless of an especially sturdy 20 yr+ observe file, the inventory fell out of favour and traded at very enticing valuation ranges. The principle enterprise, (fossile) Power clearly has challenges, however DCC is adressing this actively of their technique. YTD 2023 has been superb for the Power section, whereas the opposite segments struggled a bit. Over the previous few months, the inventory recovered properly. “Maintain”.

14. Royal Unibrew (3,6%, 1,2 years)

Royal Unibrew logo

Royal Unibrew is the second Danish addition ensuing from my “all Danish shares” collection. What I preferred in regards to the firm is the very fact, that on high of a really sturdy observe file, they appear to have a really fascinating decentralized tradition and actually good capital allocation abilities plus high notch reporting. The enterprise as such appears to be a vey steady on and really enticing in comparison with different beverage classes.

As the remainder of the alcoholic beverage business, that they had issues in passing value inflation to prospects in 2022/2023. Inititally, traders ignored that earlier than than the inventory worth suffered within the second half of the yr. Moreover, they need to digest a bigger acquisition. For me, the long run case remains to be intact,“Maintain”.

15. ABO Wind (1,9%, 1,8 years)

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ABO WInd is considered one of my two German renewable shares. Operationally, issues look exceptionally good. ABO Wind could be very energetic and income from the dashing up of permiting in Europe in addition to from tasks similar to Inexperienced hydrogen in Canada. Sadly, the founders determined that they wish to rework right into a “KGaA” which curtails minority investor rights. Personally, I feel they’re acted extra silly than evil, however investor punished the inventory with a lack of -40% in 2023. Nevertheless, that makes the inventory extraordinarily low-cost in comparison with the worth that’s inside this firm. Nevertheless one wants to look at if and the way Administration will be capable to concentrate on enterprise and the way capital allocation will develop. “Maintain & Watch”

16. Sto SE (3,3%, 1,3 years)

Sto Logo

Sto SE, the German insulation firm, is the remaining member of the “freedom Insulation” basket”.Sto is financially actually stable and the valuation is reasonable. Nevertheless, as different development associated shares, Sto suffered from the decline and in addition regulatory uncertainty esp. in Germany. I had added to the place via the yr. I do suppose that over a interval of 2-3 years, a restoration particularly in renovation could be very possible. Regardless of guiding down their gross sales for 2023, they upheld their EBIT goal which supplies me confidence into their mid time period targets. “Maintain”.

17. SFS Group (3,9%, 0,9 years)

SFS Group was one of many first new addition in 2023. Swiss primarily based SFS produces steel precision elements and in addition distributes instruments for the equipment business. They managed to amass Hoffmann, a well-known German device distributor. As a worldwide energetic Group with some publicity to development (fasteners), SFS noticed a decelerate in 2023, however particularly distribution did effectively. I additionally just like the tradition with a giant concentrate on the apprenticeship system. The CEO has began his carreer as an apprentice and labored his strategy to the highest. I hope for a really boring, however long run optimistic growth regardless of a doubtlessly dificult 2024. “Maintain”.

18. Logistec (4,3%, 0,7 years)

Logistec is a Canadian Bulk terminal operator that I “found” in March. Run by the daughter of the founder, this appeared like an ideal long run compounder. Fortunately or unluckily, the household determined to promote to a World Infrastructure fund. The deal will likely be settled in January 2024 with an honest +50% acquire, that’s why it’s the (+1) share that can routinely disappear early subsequent yr. I’m not certain that the timing for the sale was optimum, however I can’t complain an excessive amount of both. “Maintain”.

19. Energiekontor (3,6%, 0,5 years)

Energiekontor is my second renewable vitality firm. The principle distinction to ABO Wind is that in addition they personal and run renewable energy vegetation and do have an excellent capital allocation. They don’t function as internationally as ABO Wind. Energiekontor shouldn’t be as low-cost as ABO Wind however nonetheless superb worth and may be capable to enhance income significatly, regardless of haveing an excellent yr already in 2023 with a “final minute” enhance in steerage. “Maintain, doubtlessly add”.

20. Italmobiliare (4,5%, 0,3 years)

One other 2023 newcomer. Italmobiliare doesn’t deal in actual property or furnishings, as a nasty translation would possibly point out, however is a Personal Fairness model investor into Italian “High quality” firms, run by the present head of the founding household. On the time of buy, the inventory traded at round 50% of intrinsic worth and lots of the portfolio firms, particularly the bigger ones like Espresso model Borbone and excessive finish fragrance maker Santa Marie Novella have superb development prospects. “Maintain, doubtlessly add”.

21. Laurent Perrier (1%, 0,4 years)

Laurent Perrier can also be an 2023 addition, a small place that I see reasonably as a part of a “inventory assortment”. Laurent Perrier is a pure play Champagne firm with a protracted historical past, an excellent model and primarily based on “publish Covid” numbers appeared fairly low-cost. It must be seen how Champagne does via a possible 2024 recession, however Champagne is one thing that has been round for a very long time and would possibly keep related for an equally very long time. “Maintain”.

22. DEME Group (3,4%, 0,1 years)

DEME, a Belgian dredging and offshore wind development firm got here onto my radar in 2023 when as a consequence of some (for my part distinctive and non permanent) points at Oersted, Offshore wind all of the sudden received a really unhealthy fame and DEME’s share worth git hammered. DEME is likely one of the essential international gamers in Offshore Wind development and can very possible develop for a few years with the business. As well as they’ve a really stable dredging enterprise and a few fascinating “actual choices”. In 2023, profitability was not nearly as good, however I count on this to enhance going ahead. the corporate is majority owned by Ackermans van Haaren, a Belgian Holding firm. “Maintain”.

23. SAMSE Group (3,1%, 0 years)

SAMSE was my closing 2023 addition. A french distributor of constructing supplies that has been rising properly for a protracted timeand is majority owned by the founding households and the workers. A really good company tradition mixed with a fairly low-cost valuation that may mirror the uncertainties within the development sector and a doubtlessly troublesome yr in 2024. Nevertheless, as an excellent capital allocator, SMASE would possibly come out of this as a a lot stronger firm, particularly if they will purchase competitor Herige at an honest worth. “Maintain”.

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