Monday, February 26, 2024

Up to date Ideas After Promote Off


What a wild week in markets.  I am discovering loads of new concepts, sadly do not have sufficient dry powder to throw at all of them.  As an alternative, I’ll re-highlight PFSweb (PFSW) ($87MM market cap) as a boring enterprise that should not be impacted by financial institution or market stress buying and selling at an especially low a number of whereas additionally pursuing a sale.  PFSW is a third-party logistics firm primarily offering on-line order success providers for 100+ retail manufacturers.  In 2021, PFSW got here on my radar after they offered a big enterprise unit and have been persevering with to pursue strategic alternate options for the remaining 3PL enterprise.  M&A markets have slowed since then however they’re nonetheless guiding to wrap up the method someday in 2023.  To be truthful they might find yourself remaining public and pursuing a go-it-alone technique however their posture has been a sale.  In PFSW’s just lately up to date investor deck (complete factor is value a glance should you’re within the concept), they lay out the next choices:

#2 scares me a bit because it appears like what ADES did, however PFSW already distributed most of their money to shareholders in a particular dividend final 12 months, they do not have an enormous money steadiness burning a gap of their pocket.

Offering 3PL providers to the retail business, you’d count on PFSW to be within the midst of a covid hangover much like UPS/FDX or Amazon, however the firm has continued to develop on prime of their covid features and are equally guiding to 5-10% income development and 6-8% standalone EBITDA margin in 2023 (on their current convention name, 2023 is off to an “very sturdy begin” and later a “phenomenal begin”).  Additionally they present their estimate of public firm prices of two% of income that may very well be eradicated by both a strategic acquirer or if the corporate was taken non-public.  Following the 2021 asset sale and particular dividend, PFSW has a clear steadiness sheet with $30MM in internet money.

The above is utilizing the standalone EBITDA steerage (full company overhead), if we use the ex-public firm price steerage it naturally seems even cheaper.

A well-liked 3PL is GXO, a current spin of XPO Logistics, GXO is a a lot bigger, extra scaled and diversified enterprise, but it surely trades at 13x 2023 EBITDA steerage ranges, effectively above PFSW that’s beneath 4x EBITDA.

PFSW reported earnings on the 14th, its down about 30% since then regardless of no detrimental information popping out of the earnings report or the convention name.  My guess is both somebody is getting liquidated, this can be a comparatively illiquid inventory, or the income steerage is getting picked up by knowledge aggregators as a big lower.  PFSW had a unusual contract the place their GAAP income was distorted larger, however that ran off final 12 months, their GAAP income will now match their beforehand reported “service charge income”.  

The sale course of has dragged on longer than anticipated, they wished to decorate up the corporate on the market and by the point the makeover was achieved, the markets have modified only a bit.  There ought to patrons for this enterprise, dozens of personal 3PL suppliers would make strategic sense and loads of center market PE retailers that may be .

Disclosure: I personal shares of PFSW and calls

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